买股票前先进行大势研判

　　1.大盘是否处于上升周期的初期。2、宏观经济政策、舆论导向有利于哪一个板块，该板块的代表性股票是哪几个，成交量是否明显大于其它板块。确定 5-10个目标个股。3、收集目标个股的全部资料，包括公司地域、流通盘、经营动向、年报、中报，股东大会(董事会)公告、市场评论以及其它相关报道。剔 除流通盘太大，股性呆滞或经营中出现重大问题暂时又无重组希望的品种。 　　法则二：中线地量法则 　　1、选择(10、20、30)MA经6个月稳定向上之个股，其间大盘下跌均表现抗跌，一般只短暂跌破30MA。2、OBV稳定向上不断创出新高。3、 在大盘见底时地量出现，以3000万流通盘日成交10万股为标准。4、在地量出现当日收盘前10分钟逢低分批介入。5、短线以5%-10%为获利出局点。 6、中线以50%为出货点。7、以10MA为止损点。 　　法则三：短线天量法则 　　1、选择近日底部放出天量之个股，日换手率连续大于5%-10%，跟踪观察。2、(5、10、20)MA出现多头排列。3、60分钟MACD高位死叉 后缩量回调，15分钟OBV稳定上升，股价在20MA之上走稳。4、在60分钟MACD再度金叉的第二个小时逢低分批进场。5、短线获利5%以上逢急拉派 发。6、一旦大盘突变立即保本出局，以利再战。 　　法则四：强势新股法则 　　1、选择基本面良好、具成长性、流通盘6000万以下新股观察。2、上市首日换手70%以上。或当日大盘暴跌，次日跌势减缓立即收较大阳线，收复首日阴线2/3以上。3、创新高买入或选择天量法则买点介入。4、获利5%-10%出局。5、止损设为保本价。 　　法则五：成交量法则 　　1、成交量有助于研判趋势何时反转：高位放量长阴线是顶部的迹象，而极度萎缩的成交量说明抛压已经消失，往往是底部的信号。口诀：价稳量缩才是底。 2、个股成交量持续超过5%，是主力活跃其中的明显标志。短线成交量大，股价具有良好弹性，可寻求短线交易机会。3、个股经放量拉升、横盘整理后无量上 升，是主力筹码高度集中，控盘拉升的标志，此时成交极其稀少，是中线买入良机。4、如遇突发性高位巨量长阴线，情况不明，要立即出局，以防重大利空导致崩 溃性下跌。例如， (000508 股吧,行情,资讯,主力买卖)琼民源，停牌前一天放量下跌，次日遭停牌，长达三年。 　　法则六：不买下降通道的股票 　　1、猜测下降通道股票的底部是危险的，因为他可能根本没有底。2、存在的就是合理的，下跌的股票一定有下跌的理由，不要去碰它，尽管可能有很多人觉得它已经太便宜了。

炒股者的九个级别

一段
你刚进入市场，对市场里的一切只不过有个大概的了解，各个合约的规定你也不太清楚，要买什么要卖什么你也没什么主意，你的交易主要看各期货经纪公司的评论，或者听听朋友的建议，你总觉得他们说得都有道理。你的交易主要是日内的短线，赚点钱你就急着平仓，生怕到手的利润飞了，亏了你就抱着，想着总有解套的时候。

二段
你开始知道什么是主力合约，盘后就急着看持仓结构。你也知道了一些技术指标，MACD、KDJ、RSI之类的，总觉得它们有时准，有时又不准。你也关心基本面情况，今天那里天气如何？库存多了还是少了？你总是第一时间上网查查看。你的交易比较频繁，时赚时亏，但总的来说，帐户是亏损的。

三段
你在市场上已经交易了一段时间了，但总的来说帐户是亏损的。你觉得要在这个市场赚钱真的很难，你急着想翻本，可你不知道该怎么办。你看了一些关于交易的书，可你觉得他们说的是一回事，拿到这个市场中实际操作又蛮不是那么回事。你觉得还是指标不够精确，于是你试着调整参数，可它们仍然是有时准有时不准。你上论坛，希望得到高手的指导。可他们也是有时准有时不准。

四段
你有过大亏或者暴仓的经历了。你知道要在这个市场上生存不能听信那些个评论。于是你开始系统地学习，你把能找到的相关书籍都看了，希望能从中找到一个战胜市场的法宝。你也学习了波浪理论、江恩的测市法则、混沌理论之类的。你也知道了要顺势而为、亏损了要止损。可你搞不清这个“势”是怎么确定的，止损设在什么地方才好。你觉得要准确地知道市场何时反转真的太难了，你不相信在这个市场有人可以赚到钱，因为聪明如你都觉得面对市场束手无策，他们怎么可能赚到钱？

五段
你开始明白要在这个市场上赚钱必须要有一套交易系统。可你对这个交易系统具体都包括哪些东东还搞不太明白。你试着将几个指标组合成你的系统，根据它们提供的信号开平仓。可它们经常相互冲突，让你搞不明白此时到底该相信哪个。你试着长线交易，可有时你搞不清到底是回调还是要反转了。你也试着就做日内短线好了，每天赚个三五百块钱，一年下来应该也不少了。可关键是经常今天赚了三百，明天却亏了五百。你的帐单仍然是亏损的，你觉得做期货真是太难了，实在不行的话，你考虑是不是该放弃了。

六段
你开始明白在这个市场上你没法预测价格走势，你不行，别人也不行。你开始有一套自己的交易系统，你知道自己只要严守纪律，长远的来看，你该能够赚到钱。你开始用概率来考虑问题，每一次进场，知道风险和报酬的比率各是多少。错了你会止损，盈利的单子你也开始能拿得住了。你的帐单时赚时亏，盈亏基本相当。有时你能按自己的系统交易，有时你不能。但你开始相信这个市场上有人可以赚到钱。你开始能够喊出好单，在论坛上你也开始成为大众关注的焦点。

七段
你开始能够稳定盈利，有自己的一整套交易系统。你已经解决了交易理念的种种问题，开始有了自己的交易哲学。对于技术性的东西你不太关心，你知道只要理念正确，即使是使用简单的移动平均线你也可以稳定获利。你知道哪些是关键的点位，你可以从容地进场，虽然你看不清以后的走势到底如何。某一天你可能先赚五百又亏了三百，但你能正确地执行止损，你知道这些亏掉的钱迟早又会回来。你的心态基本平静，但偶而面对行情的剧烈波动还是会有些起伏，特别是有单的时候。

八段
这时候赚钱对你来说是家常便饭，就象一名驾驶老手开车一样，遇到红灯就停、绿灯就行。交易对你来说完全是无意识的。你不再需要对着图形精确地定义止损的位置，拿着笔或计算器计算着风险和报酬的比率。你完全不关心铜的库存是高了还是低了，因为基本面对于你来说毫无用处。

九段
这时候的你对世界经济了如指掌，你可以提前预知下一轮的经济走势。一年你只交易几次，也可能一单一拿就是几年。你很少有看盘的时候，多数时间你在打高尔夫或是在太平洋的某个小岛钓鱼。你从不和别人说起交易的事，因为你知道没人能明白。

My Index

• Dow 30


• TED SPREAD


• BALTIC DRY INDEX


• Commodity Index


• USD Index


• VIX Index


• iShares Lehman 20+ Year Tsy Bond Fund


• iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Tsy Bond Fund


• XHB Index


• SMH Index


• index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan


• HOME Purchase Index


• HOME Refinance Index


• Home Price Index US


• 30 Year Fixed Rate


• Oil Index


• Retail Index


• Housing Index


• T-Bond 3 Month yield Index


• T-Bond 10 years yield Index


• T-Bond 30 years yield Index


• Money Movement1


• Money movement2


• inflation index


• Stocha and $NYLOW and SPY


• $UST10Y/UST2Y


• Bond/Stock ratio


• Corp Bond/Treasure Bond ratio


• Bullish percentage index with RSI


• NYUPV in red leads the NYADV in blue (volume leads price) on the upside while the SPX is down, this is a positive divergence


• Gold/USD Dollar Ratio


• Gold/OIL Dollar Ratio


• tick


• trin



• Treasure Bond Aution Data



• Index sector groups



• XLF


• XLY


• XLP


• XLE


• XLI


• XLK


• XLU



• UPS



• FDX



• CHH




• X





• OMC




• EXC




• ETR



• ADP



• ADSK



• AON



• APOL



• BAX




• BCS



• CA



• CAH



• CHRW





• CI




• COST



• DGX



• ECL




• ESRX



• EXPD



• FLIR



• FULT



• GENZ



• HRB




• IVZ




• LH




• MCD



• MMC



• NCR




• NKE



• NU



• ORLY



• PEP




• PG



• ROST



• SHW



• PETM




• STD




• STZ



• SY



• SYMC



• UN



• VTR



• WFMI



• YUM



• XRAY



• JJC



• ICF









• Census Bureau Economic Briefing Room






• Economic Indicators and Releases


• CPI


• Continue Unemployeement


• Initial Unemployeement


• ISM employeemnent Indx



• Retail Sale


• Dets/Income



• Bussiness Inventory



• GDP


• Personel Saving rate



• equipment and software Inv



• export


• import




• combination of TIP,GOLD,USD,UST10:UST2


• ECRI WLI


• SP500 P/E Ratio


• 华尔街日报


• 纽约日报


• 华盛顿邮报


• 金融时报


• ECON 252: Financial Markets

CoffeeHouse strategy

Bonds up 1.31% (TLT)
US Large cap up 11.78% (VV)
US Large value up 16.99% (VTV)
US Small cap up 12.26% (VB)
US Small value up 15.29% (VBR)
International up 18.74% (EFA)

High Dividend stock
BAC , CM , ACAS , PGH , PWE , HTE , KMP , TPPDSX , FRO , JNJ , PG , MO

working sheets 2009-01-18

Symbols stopLose profitTaken holdingPrice Risk Close

XLF 9.18 11.38 9.75 2.85 9.68
XLY 20.08 22.25 20.65 2.75 20.61
XLP 22.48 23.79 23.0 1.51 22.95
XLE 43.88 50.20 46.64 1.3 46.54
XLI 21.05 23.50 21.87 1.9 21.82
XLK 14.25 15.99 14.99 1.3 14.94
XLU 28.36 30.09 28.95 1.9 28.9
PWT.UN 14.5 15.80 14.9 2.0 14.88
SDT.UN 2.62 2.99 2.74 1.6

XLF Jan put price 11.0 12.0
XHB Jan put price 12.0 *2
UYG Jan put price 5.0

2008-10-21 24 Hour trading

24 Hour Trading: A Minute-by-minute Schedule of Daily Trading Updates & Events

August 2nd, 2007

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By Brian Johnson

Successful trading has never been a 9 to 5 job. But today, more than ever, the investing world really does run around the clock.

To help you make the most of your time, and make sure you don’t miss out on any of the day’s events, we’ve compiled a schedule containing of all the essential trading events throughout the day. Keep in mind the Forex market is open 24 hours a day, so while you’re sleeping someone is still trading out there. From market schedules to day-end recaps this schedule has got you covered.

For simplicity issues this schedule is based off of Eastern Standard Time (EST). To convert this to your local time, try using The World Clock or Time Zone Converter.

12:00 Midnight

• 12:00 - Shanghai Stock Exchange Session 2 opens
• 12:25 - Bombay Stock Exchange opens

1:00 AM

• 1:00 - Tokyo Stock Exchange Session 2 closes
• 1:00 - Australian Stock Exchange closes
• 1:15 - Moscow Stock opens
• 1:30 - Hong Kong Stock Exchange Session 2 opens

2:00 AM

• 2:00 - Shanghai Stock Exchange Session 2 closes
• 2:00 - London Stock Exchange opens
• 2:00 - Madrid Stock Exchange opens
• 2:00 - Sydney Forex market closes
• 2:30 - Italian Stock Exchange opens

3:00 AM

• 3:00 - London Forex market opens
• 3:00 - Hong Kong Stock Exchange Session 2 closes
• 3:00 - Frankfurt Stock Exchange opens

4:00 AM

• 4:00 - Tokyo Forex market closes
• 4:00 - CNBC’s World Wide Exchange (TV): Delivers an in-depth analysis of trends and global events that affect traders. Contains guests and reports from all over the world.
• 4:00 - Swiss Stock Exchange opens

5:00 AM

• 5:00 - Fox News’ Neil Cavuto: Your World (TV): From Main Street to Wall Street — All the day’s market headlines.

6:00 AM

• 12:25 - Bombay Stock Exchange closes
• 6:00 - Bloomberg’s Morning Call (TV): Market coverage and interviews with top economic and political advisors. Excellent starting point for a trader working off of the New York schedule.

7:00 AM

8:00 AM

• 8:00 - New York Forex market opens
• 8:00 - Sao Paulo Stock Exchange opens
• 8:20 - Chicago Mercantile Exchange opens

9:00 AM

• 9:30 - New York Stock Exchange opens
• 9:30 - NASDAQ opens
• 9:30 - American Stock Exchange opens
• 9:30 - Toronto Stock Exchange opens
• 9:30 - S&P 500 opens

10:00 AM

• 10:05 - Moscow Stock Exchange closes
• 10:30 - London Stock Exchange closes
• 10:30 - Italian Stock Exchange closes
• 10:30 - Madrid Stock Exchange closes

11:00 AM

• 11:30 - Frankfurt Stock Exchange closes

12:00 Noon

• 12:00 - London Forex market closes
• 12:00 - Swiss Stock Exchange closes

1:00 PM

• 1:00 - CNN’s In the Money (TV, Sat. Only): Breaks down the business news of the week and shows you how it impacts your bottom line.

2:00 PM

3:00 PM

• 3:00 - Sao Paulo Stock Exchange closes

4:00 PM

• 4:00 - New York Stock Exchange closes
• 4:00 - NASDAQ closes
• 4:00 - American Stock Exchange closes
• 4:00 - Toronto Stock Exchange closes
• 4:15 - S&P 500 closes
• 4:15 - Chicago Mercantile Exchange closes

5:00 PM

• 5:00 - New York Forex market closes
• 5:00 - Sydney Forex market opens

6:00 PM

• 6:00 - Bloomberg’s Evening Edition (TV): Recaps the day’s business and political stories focusing on their significance to traders.
• 6:00 - CNBC’s Mad Money (TV): Popular stock analyst and money manager Jim Cramer gives his take on the days trades and interacts with viewers.
• 6:30 - NPR’s Marketplace (Radio): Nationally syndicated radio program that provides a run-down of the day’s market performance as well as the major events that affect markets

7:00 PM

• 7:00 - Tokyo Forex market opens
• 7:00 - Tokyo Stock Exchange Session 1 opens
• 7:00 - Australian Stock Exchange opens

8:00 PM

• 8:30 - Shanghai Stock Exchange Session 1 opens

9:00 PM

• 9:00 - Hong Kong Stock Exchange Session 1 opens
• 9:00 - Tokyo Stock Exchange Session 1 closes

10:00 PM

• 10:30 - Shanghai Stock Exchange Session 1 closes
• 10:30 - Tokyo Stock Exchange Session 2 opens

11:00 PM

• 11:30 - Hong Kong Stock Exchange Session 1 closes

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2008-10-21 Tech-Fund Anylisis

Higher Treasury rates have a lot of people upset and worried. That is, worried because they think the recent bailouts combined with the other out of control US spending puts the US balance sheet in jeopardy.



In past bear markets, as short-term rates declined, and long-term rates increased, it was a sign of future growth... and looking around the corner, another bull market for stocks down the road.



Also, in past bear markets, the savy bulls would look for pessimism to reach such an extreme level that stocks would bottom out because the general mood was so negative that there was no one left to sell stocks.



Will this cycle follow the same pattern? The chart above is a fairly good sign that longer-term rates have bottomed and are headed higher. And, yikes, the news and mood doesn't seem like it could be worse. Also, Fed Funds are at 1.5% and foreign central banks have finally seen the light and are lowing rates to stimulate growth.



So do we have the ingredients we need to at least start to look for signs that the worst is near? We aren't talking about a turnaround soon, but around the corner. Maybe late 2009?



I'm having trouble wrapping this up. The point is, these higher rates are usually a good sign for people willing to look out into the future, as long as the rates don't climb too far too fast. But this time?
















These markets followed the classic, textbook, topping pattern. First rates peaked, then stocks, then commodities. And now we wait for the bottom pattern. It looks to me as though the first step is complete with rates bottoming, and now we wait to see when stocks bottom. Based on the oversold weekly RSI for stocks, it looks to me like stocks will retest at least once before the bottom is in.